What’s Rare Got to do With it?
Thursday, May 5th, 2011One of the things that seems to drive prices when it comes to collectibles is rarity. In general, rare coins are worth more than common coins. Rare stamps? Same deal. Cracker Jack prizes? Lunch boxes? You bet. Vintage guitars? Uh, no. Not really. Most collectors know that 58-59 and 60 Les Pauls are the most valuable electric guitars on the planet but they are not particularly rare. There are more 59 ‘bursts than there are 59 335’s. And yet, the ‘burst is worth ten times as much. Rarity between models is pretty much irrelevant. But what happens when you look at rarity within a particular model line? Let’s say a sunburst 59 ES-335 is worth $35,000 for a nice one. They made
some 521 of them and they are rarer than a 59 ‘burst. But, if you’re lucky enough to find a blondie, then it’s going to be worth a lot more. All other things being equal, I would say that a blonde 59 is worth one and a half times as much or around $50,000. But, something else happens when you look at 345s. In 1959, there were 449 sunburst 335s made and 32 blondes. According to Gibson, there were no red ones. There were also no red 59 ES 335’s according to Gibson. I know of four red 59 ES-345s (I owned one of them for a while) and 3 red 59 ES-335s. So, which is worth more…the red ones or the blonde ones? You would think the red ones but no, it’s the blondes. A blonde 59 ES-345 is a very rare bird and I know of one on the market for $85,000. I will be listing another in the next couple of days (for a lot less). But consider that I listed my red one on Ebay for $25,000 and it got NO bids. Zip. Zilch. Nada. It was almost mint and had a pair of zebra PAFs and still…no bids. Want my theory? Well, even if you don’t, I’m giving it to you. The reason the very rare red 335s and 345s come in so far below the blondes is that over the life of the line, reds are pretty common. Why should I pay $40,000 for a red ’59 when I can get a ’60 for around half that? Over the course of the “Golden Era”, which I consider 59 through early 65 for 345s, there are a little over 1,000 red ones. There are only 50…count’em, 50 blondes. The “Golden Era” for 335s is 58-64 but there are 209 of them. Is a blonde 345 worth more than a blonde 335? It’s 4 times as rare. The answer is no and I’m not sure why. I guess that 335s are more than 4 times as popular as 345s. I’ll take this one step further. I know of 3 sunburst 355s. They don’t command a premium that is commensurate with their rarity but come up with a black one and woo hoo, you’ve hit the jackpot. I don’t know how many black ones there are but I know Keith Richards has one of them and that alone is enough to kick up the price into the stratosphere (not the Stratosphere). Sometimes it’s kind of futile to try to force order into the vintage guitar universe. This is one of those times. Some things just don’t make rational sense and we still have to accept the it’s “just the way it is.”